Dive Brief:
- Consumer confidence waned this month amid growing pessimism about prospects for jobs, income and business conditions, The Conference Board said Tuesday in a report on a monthly survey.
- A gauge of consumer confidence fell in August for the second consecutive month, declining to 89.4 from 90.2 in July, the research group said. Written responses on the economy were gloomier than in July, focusing on rising fuel prices, war, inflation, food, trade and jobs, The Conference Board said.
- The “data underscore how worried people are about the future,” especially consumers with annual incomes less than $75,000, Navy Federal Credit Union Heather Long said in a note. “The financial squeeze is real for middle- and moderate-income Americans right now and it’s only going to get harder if borrowing costs stay high,” she said.
Dive Insight:
Most consumers expect higher inflation and anticipate that interest rates will rise in the next 12 months, The Conference Board said.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury note — the benchmark for mortgages and other consumer loans — has increased from 4.19% at the start of this year to 4.64% on Tuesday.
Borrowing costs have risen because of concerns about inflation and the U.S.-Iran conflict, the worsening U.S. fiscal outlook and a surge of borrowing among companies building the infrastructure for artificial intelligence.
Rising rates are especially painful for lower-income Americans.
“Consumer confidence for Americans earning $75,000 or less is falling,” Long said.
“While it’s always worse for lower-income households, the trend has been clear since the war in Iran began,” she said, noting a “divide between high earners and more moderate earners.”
Similar perceptions have cropped up in other recent household surveys.
Consumer sentiment fell 8% this month after two straight months of improvement, according to Joanne Hsu, director for surveys of consumers at the University of Michigan.
“Although the early-month weakening in sentiment was pervasive across various demographic groups, notably large reductions were seen among older consumers, lower-income consumers and those without a college degree,” Hsu said.
“These groups are all particularly vulnerable to any erosion of purchasing power stemming from inflation,” she said, reporting on preliminary data for August. The university on Friday plans to release its final findings for August.
Fifty-four percent of U.S. households saved no money last month, EY-Parthenon found in a recent survey, highlighting how the rising price for gasoline and other goods is undermining consumers’ buying power.
One out of five households spent more than it earned and tapped debt or savings to cover expenses, EY-Parthenon said. Seventy-two percent of consumers identified dining out, apparel, beauty and personal care, and other discretionary categories as candidates for spending cuts.
Consumers’ perceptions of current economic conditions outshine their expectations for the future, The Conference Board said.
The Present Situation Index measuring assessments of current business and labor market conditions rose by 6.8 points to 121.2, reversing three straight months of declines, according to the research group.
