Dive Brief:

• U.S. importers and consumers bear 96% of the costs from tariffs imposed since April, the Kiel Institute said in a report, contradicting a Trump administration claim that foreigners rather than U.S. citizens shoulder the burden from import taxes.
• So-called “Liberation Day” tariffs generated roughly $200 billion in 2025, yet only 4% of the import tax revenue came from outside U.S. borders, according to the Kiel Institute, a Germany-based think tank. The tariffs acted like a consumption tax on imported goods, reducing the variety and volume of goods available to consumers.
• “The claim that foreign countries pay these tariffs is a myth,” Kiel Institute Research Director Julian Hinz said Monday in a statement. Long term, the import taxes will erode U.S. company profits, while pushing up prices for consumers, the institute said.

Dive Insight:

President Donald Trump plans talks this week with European leaders at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, over his threat to impose a 10% tariff on the goods of eight NATO members beginning on Feb. 1 if Denmark does not sell Greenland to the U.S. The import duties would rise to 25% in June if there is no deal.

“I think something's going to happen that's going to be very good for everybody,” Trump told reporters Tuesday during a press conference when asked if the annexation of Greenland would lead to the breakup of NATO.

“I think that we will work something out where NATO is going to be very happy, and where we're going to be very happy,” he told reporters at the White House. Referring to Greenland, Trump said, “we need it for national security and even world security.”

The new tariffs stemming from conflict over Greenland would raise the tariff rate for U.S. consumers to 17.5% from 16.9%, which is the highest level since 1932, the Yale Budget Lab said Monday.

Prices would rise by 1.3% over the short term, imposing a $1,751 loss for the average U.S. household, the Yale Budget Lab said, noting that the “Greenland tariffs” would push up the price of computers and heavy machinery the most.

Also, by the end of 2026, Greenland tariffs and existing import duties would increase unemployment by 0.7 percentage point, according to the Yale Budget Lab. With or without the threatened tariffs, import taxes will slow gross domestic product growth this year by 0.4 percentage point.

The Kiel Institute in its study analyzed shipment-level data covering more than 25 million transactions valued at more than $4 trillion. Analysis of the harm from tariffs on trade with Brazil and India showed that volumes collapsed and export prices did not decline.

“Consumers are the ultimate bearers of the burden,” the Kiel Institute said.

“Whether through higher prices on imported goods, higher prices on domestically produced goods that use imported inputs, or reduced availability and variety of products, American households pay for the tariffs,” the institute said.